Afternoon all. It is afternoon. Should have been morning, but you know, mad market, isn’t it?

Seven months into the conflict and the market is still waiting for something concrete. Brent above $107, diesel around $195/bbl, expensive freight and a Brent curve that continues to say tight. Moving oil and having free passage are two very different things.

Brent below $100 might look like relief. Gasoil above $200/bbl says otherwise. Crude and products remain two very different stories, while extraordinary freight costs add another layer to an already expensive barrel.

Diplomacy is apparently back on the menu. Lovely. But Saudi barrels haven’t disappeared, they’ve moved. Europe is losing supply, Asia is gaining it and the market is still trying to decide how much geopolitical risk it should actually price.